Dinâmica de Sistemas e Prospecção de Cenários: Uma Revisão da Literatura Outros Idiomas

ID:
48844
Resumo:
Pouco se discute sobre a aplicação conjunta das ferramentas de dinâmica de sistemas e de prospecção. O presente artigo objetiva revisar a literatura no que tange à aplicação conjunta desses assuntos, através do uso de bibliometria e análise contextual. A partir da aplicação do método Proknow-C foram selecionados 35 artigos das bases de dados Scopus e Scielo, abrangendo o período de 1960 a 2014, de acordo com sua relevância e relação com o tema. Os resultados apontam que os principais journals que apresentam ambos os temas são “Technological Forecasting and Social Change” e o “Journal of the Operational Research Society”. A primeira publicação analisada data de 1976 e as publicações seguintes só vieram a partir de 1988. Daim et al. e Lyneis são os autores cujos artigos tiveram o maior número de citações. As principais metodologias utilizadas foram dinâmica de sistemas e estudo de caso. Em relação à análise contextual, identifica-se que muitos artigos utilizam modelagem e simulação para prospectar o futuro e construir cenários, mas poucos discutem se essa aplicação é a mais adequada e como se deve utilizar as duas ferramentas em conjunto.
Citação ABNT:
HADDAD, C. R.; CATAPAN, A.; SILVA, F.; MALDONADO, M. U. Dinâmica de Sistemas e Prospecção de Cenários: Uma Revisão da Literatura . Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 9, n. 3, p. 93-125, 2017.
Citação APA:
Haddad, C. R., Catapan, A., Silva, F., & Maldonado, M. U. (2017). Dinâmica de Sistemas e Prospecção de Cenários: Uma Revisão da Literatura . Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 9(3), 93-125.
DOI:
10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2017.v9i3.309
Link Permanente:
http://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/48844/dinamica-de-sistemas-e-prospeccao-de-cenarios--uma-revisao-da-literatura-/i/pt-br
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
Idioma:
Português
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