ID: 9892
Authors:
Janilson Antonio da Silva.
Source:
Contabilidade Vista & Revista, v. 23, n. 4, p. 73-101, October-December, 2012. 29 page(s).
Keyword:
Brazil , Debt , LRF , Public Fnance , Subnational Governments
Document type: Article (Portuguese)
Show Abstract
Before the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law, the situation of the state governments’ debt in Brazil was critical. The economic and political scenarios, during the decades from 1960 to 1990, associated with bad management were responsible for this situation. After enactment of the law, this situation has been reversed and the state governments’ debt, one of the sources of state funding, has been reduced. The covenants imposed by law can influence the choices of public officials, similar to that described by Watts and Zimmerman (1986) in the debt/equity hypothesis. Considering this scenario, this research aimed to identify the restrictive clauses of the law, based on accounting numbers, which could be associated with the state governments’ debt. Data from 27 states were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2009 through four regressive models: (i) linear probability, using the least squares (LPM), (ii) logistic grouped (pooled), (iii) logistical fixed effects (FE), and (iv) logistic random effects (RE). Pooled model was the most adjusted and reached the following indicators: (i) overall percentage of correct answers: 93.7% (ii) adjustment indicator (Hosmer-Lemeshow): 86.0%, and (iii) discriminating power (ROC curve area): 97.1%. According to the results, the most indebted states shown to possess lower levels of personnel expenses and higher level of investments spending, which would indicate that these choices were related to the level of indebtedness of such entities and the restrictive clauses of the Law of Responsibility, since none of the analyzed governments exceeded the legal limits.