Editorial

ID: 3187

Authors: James Terence Coulter Wright, Renata Giovinazzo Spers.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 1-2, July-December, 2010. 2 page(s).

Document type: Editorial (Portuguese)

Forecasting residential electricity consumption in Brazil: application of the ARX model

ID: 3179

Authors: Joao Bosco de Castro, Alessandra de Ávila Montini.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 3-16, July-December, 2010. 14 page(s).

Keyword: ARX modeling , Electricity consumption , Time series

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

This work aims to propose the application of the ARX model to forecast residential electricity consumption in Brazil. Such estimates are critical for decision making in the energy sector, from a technical, economic and environmentally sustainable standpoint. The demand for electricity follows a multiplicative model based on economic theory and involves four explanatory variables: the cost of residential electricity, the actual average income, the inflation of domestic utilities and the electricity consumption. The coefficients of the electricity consumption equation were determined using the ARX model, which considers the influence of exogenous variables to estimate the dependent variable and employs an autoregression process for residual modeling to improve the explanatory power. The resulting model has a determination coefficient of 95.4 percent and all estimated coefficients were significant at the 0.10 descriptive level. Residential electricity consumption estimates were also determined for January and February 2010 within the 95 percent confidence interval, which included the actual consumption figures observed. The proposed model has been shown to be useful for estimating residential electricity consumption in Brazil.

Reflections on Blue Ocean strategy: a comparison with Ansoff’s, Porter’s, and Hax and Wilde’s Strategies

ID: 3178

Authors: Ailton Conde Jussani, Patricia Viveiros de Castro Krakauer, Edison Fernandes Pólo.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 17-35, July-December, 2010. 19 page(s).

Keyword: Comparative matrix , Strategic approaches , Strategic decisions

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

Within the context of the globalized environment, competitiveness has become a critical issue for business. The use of research to inform strategic decisions is thus important for firms on the path to competitiveness, regardless of their market of operation. This paper provides an overview of four strategies—Kim and Mauborgne’s Blue Ocean Strategy, Ansoff’s Matrix, Porter’s Generic Strategies, and Hax and Wilde’s Delta model—in order to find the similarities and approximations among them. Applying the scientific reading method, we conducted a comprehensive review of the literature on strategy to draw up a comparative matrix among the four strategies analyzed so as to discuss the typologies for strategy formation modes. This matrix is intended to be used in future field studies. The comparison led to the observation that several possible approaches exist, each suited for distinctive businesses and business environments. This article aims to contribute to a better knowledge of administrative techniques that can help firms - and their executives - improve strategic decision making by choosing the strategy that best fits the competitive environment in which their business operates.

The importance of the methodology of scenarios for financial institutions in times of crisis

ID: 3181

Authors: Paulo Roberto Correa Leão, Ivan Rocha Neto, José Luiz Barros Fernandes, Adan Kenedy Nunes Xavier.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 36-53, July-December, 2010. 18 page(s).

Keyword: Crisis , Financial institutions , Scenarios

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

Recently, the need to apply strategic planning methodologies in business has risen, since corporations are part of a globalized world in which technological change and economic dynamism are evolving at a faster pace. Thus, firms must perform not only efficiently but also effectively in adapting to changes as they occur in the political, economic, technological, legal and environmental dimensions. This dictates the need for new strategic organizational positioning. The potential usefulness of the scenarios methodology was investigated for a sample of financial institutions with assets in the Brazilian market, based on management reports and in accordance with strategic dimensions needed to cope with crises. Therefore, we propose a new methodology for the qualitative analysis of official management reports, which indicates a perception of scenario building within organizations. The results suggest a positive relationship between the quality of the process of generating scenarios and the financial results of the banking institution.

Perception of uncertainty and operating performance of the brazilian industry from 2007 to 2009

ID: 3180

Authors: Marta Sambiase Lombardi, Caio Eduardo Bertoni, Guilherme Issamu Nozawa, Leandro Augustto Grandi, Thiago Bellato.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 54-80, July-December, 2010. 27 page(s).

Keyword: Operational performance , Trust , Uncertainty

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

This article poses to explore the relationship between the manager´s perception of uncertainty and the Brazilian industry´s operational performance during the period from 2007 to 2009. This timeframe was chosen because it comprised both positive and negative cycles of the global economic panorama, and thus capable of interfering in the manager´s perception of uncertainty and consequent business strategies. Periods of market fluctuations and more dynamic and complex business environments clearly demonstrate that managerial models which are applicable to static or predictable scenarios, become fragile and of dubious applicability; that is, practices adopted and described in business administration bibliographies might not produce expected results. A key factor for sound performance is the positioning of companies in relation to future planning (Knight, 2002), the latter defined as actions taken by the entrepreneur given a certain degree of uncertainty, inherent to the management activity. The relationship between uncertainty and corporate performance has been studied, at least, ever since Knight in 1921. The author affirmed that we live in a world of change and in a world of uncertainty. The level of entrepreneur trust from the National Industry Confederation represented the perception of uncertainty, whilst operational performance was formed as of industrial production and employment IBGE indexes. Results demonstrate that both constructs have equivalent movements during the course of the period, presenting a positive correlation.

The accuracy of demand forecast models as a critical factor in the financial performance of the food industry

ID: 3182

Authors: Cássia Rita Pereira Da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Da Veiga, Luiz Carlos Duclós.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 81-104, July-December, 2010. 24 page(s).

Keyword: Accuracy , Demand forecasting , Financial performance

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

Every organization needs to balance their production capacities with demand. The role of demand forecasting is to assist in the organization's strategic planning; this process allows administrators to anticipate the future and plot an appropriate course of action. On its own, however, a system of demand forecasting is not enough. It is the quality of information obtained by this system which enables the organization to achieve better operational planning. In this context, this paper presents case study research to: (a) define the quantitative model to forecast demand with greater accuracy; and (b) to verify the influence of accuracy in demand forecasting on financial performance. This is an ex-post facto descriptive inquiry with a time series in which we made use of historical data from five groups of products over the period 2004–2008. The results suggest that if a company employs the ARIMA model for groups A, B, and E; the Holt model for group D; and the Winter model for group C, revenues will increase by approximately $1,600,000 annually.

Administração de P&D na indústria de alta tecnologia: como gerenciar um paradoxo?

ID: 3184

Authors: Mihail de Pieri Mirica, Nobuiuki Costa Ito.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 105-127, July-December, 2010. 23 page(s).

Keyword: Ambidextrous organizations , Innovation , Paradox , Research & Development , Strategy

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

The competitive environment of the knowledge age is getting more complex, dynamic, and fast-moving each day. The high tech industry is intensively tied to its effects and demands for innovation, so the field of Research and Development must act strategically, generating innovations and granting success and sustainability to the business. However, there is a paradox in R&D which may lay traps and obstacles disguised by the busy day-to-day activity of the organization. The purpose of this paper is to point out directions that managers may take to cope with these contradictions in R&D administration. The R&D paradox is rooted in the conflict between exploitation, achieved by continual improvement through incremental innovation, and by exploration, which seeks new opportunities in the creation of new technologies through disruptive innovations. These two sides of the paradox demand different, and sometimes even divergent, organizations. Top management leadership is crucial for the acceptance and balancing of the contradictions created by this paradox, and can align exploitation/exploration through distributive and integrative decisions and transform companies into truly ambidextrous organizations.

Internationalization Sstrategies of the Brazilian meat agribusiness sector: exports or direct investment abroad?

ID: 3183

Authors: Eva Stal, Vanderlei José Sereia, Ricardo Cesso da Silva.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 128-156, July-December, 2010. 29 page(s).

Keyword: Agribusiness , Internationalization , Strategy

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

The article analyzes the internationalization strategies of the four largest Brazilian companies in the meat (beef, pork and poultry) agribusiness sector, by considering the comparative and competitive advantages of the country and the companies. JBS, Marfrig, Sadia and Perdigão were studied, of which the last two merged in May 2009, forming Brasil Foods. The authors looked into what led these companies to start investing abroad directly, as from 2005, as a complement to their exports, the preferred strategy for placing products in foreign markets. The research method used was the multiple case study, drawing on primary data (interviews, corporate annual reports, financial statements, press releases and shareholder information) and secondary data (theses, dissertations, academic articles, reports in newspapers and business journals), using bibliographic and documentary research. Everything was analyzed in the light of international business and strategy theories. The results show that exports still predominate and that investing directly abroad was, in principle, a reactive strategy to sanitary barriers against Brazilian products. However, the acquisition of companies in restriction-free countries has increased as part of a forward-looking strategy for gaining access to new markets and strengthening brands.

The internationalization process of the sales operations of the products of a sanitary ware industry

ID: 3186

Authors: Emerson Antonio Maccari, Cinthia Maria Ambrogi Alonso, Tony Hideki Tanaka, Ariovaldo Martins da Quinta Junior.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 157-178, July-December, 2010. 22 page(s).

Keyword: Competitive intelligence , Internationalization of companies , Strategy , Uppsala Model

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

Internationalization consists of extending an organization's operations abroad. It involves decisions based on objective criteria and on an evaluation of strategies for entering the foreign market. The problem addressed in this study concerns a Brazilian firm’s difficulties developing its operations abroad. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify the internationalization process of an industry in the sanitary ware segment in the development of its operations in another country. The research method employed was the single case study and data was collected by means of a semi-structured research script applied to company executives. The results showed that the internationalization process is characterized by the dynamic learning model (Uppsala Model), according to which an organization develops its activities abroad gradually, as it acquires experience and expertise in the market. The company is attempting to overcome cultural barriers and psychic distance in a slow internationalization process, aligned with the differentiation strategy and focus that it uses in the Brazilian market. This strategy comprises a sequence of planned and deliberate steps, with low investment exposure and risk. It was found that the firm adopts a strategy of exporting through distributors, this being a critical success factor, but that the distributor approval and development process lacks robust and formalized structuring. There are opportunities for improvement in the process of competitive intelligence in order to systematize the search and interpretation of information about the markets in which the company wants to operate.

Knowledge management at Brazilian incubators

ID: 3185

Authors: Ilse Maria Beuren, Fabiano Maury Raupp.

Source: Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 179-202, July-December, 2010. 24 page(s).

Keyword: ANPROTEC , Brazilian incubators , Knowledge management

Document type: Article (English) Show Abstract

This article poses to analyse knowledge management at Brazilian incubators, members of the National Association of Entities Promoting Innovative Enterprises (ANPROTEC). A descriptive, survey like research with a quantitative approach was undertaken. The research population consists of 359 business incubators in Brazil which are part of ANPROTEC, according to a list provided by the mentioned association. A questionnaire of closed questions was sent by e-mail to the coordinators (managers) of these incubators. From the total amount queried, 163 coordinators returned the survey instrument with answers, thus representing 45.40% of the population, which actually constitutes the sample by accessibility. The results of the research indicate that there is a concern in generating, disseminating and, primarily, in sharing knowledge, at the studied incubators. Concepts of knowledge management and the ways these are shared - duly discussed in the theoretical portion of the study - were identified upon conduction of the survey, particularly in as much as the seven dimensions presented by Terra (2001) - which ought to be taken into consideration during the implementation of knowledge management at an organization - is concerned.