ID: 43100
Authors:
Fernando Guedes de Campos, Filipe Costa de Souza.
Source:
Revista Evidenciação Contábil & Finanças, v. 4, n. 3, p. 89-108, September-December, 2016. 20 page(s).
Keyword:
85/95 Rule , Actuarial Mathematics , Retirement , RGPS
Document type: Article (Portuguese)
Show Abstract
This study aimed to find, under the actuarial perspective, the retirement age that maximizes the expected present value of the future benefits cash flow of a worker linked to The Brazilian General Social Welfare Policy (RGPS). Assuming certain hypothesis and making simulations, the study deals with social, legislative, economics and actuarial factors used to calculate the expected present value of the future benefits cash flow, such as: gender, age of entrance into the labor market, interest rate, wage growth rate, life expectance and inflation rate. Scenarios were developed and analyzed in accordance to the recent changes in the retirement rules of the RGPS, indicating the impact that these factors have on the optimal retirement age. Based on the initial assumptions of the study, the results revealed that the retirement ages that maximize the expected present value of the future benefits cash flow are 57 years for men and 52 years for women, and these optimal ages occur when the workers meet the requirements of the 85/95 rule. According to the sensitivity analysis, it was concluded that variations in the life expectancy at birth did not significantly alter the optimal retirement age, different from the interest rate and wage growth rate, which had greater impact in these optimal ages. Moreover, the fact that the requirements for retirement due to contribution time occur five years earlier for female contributors, linked to a five-year bonus in the reduction factor calculation, makes that the optimal retirement age for women be always lower than for men. This difference also occurs with respect to the expected present values of the future benefits cash flows which, for such facts, are always higher for female contributors.