59173

Wanderson Rocha Bittencourt
Pedro H. M. Albuquerque

Revista Contabilidade & Finanças

Esta pesquisa buscou analisar as variáveis que podem influenciar a falência das empresas. Durante vários anos, as principais pesquisas sobre falência reportaram as metodologias convencionais visando à sua predição. Em suas análises, a utilização de variáveis contábeis predominou maciçamente. Porém, ao aplicá-las, as variáveis contábeis eram consideradas homogêneas, ou seja, para os modelos tradicionais, presumia-se que em todas as empresas o comportamento dos indicadores era similar, ignorando a heterogeneidade entre elas. Observa-se, ainda, a relevância da crise financeira ocorrida no final de 2007, causando grande colapso financeiro mundial, tendo efeitos diferentes nos mais diversos setores e empresas. Nesse cenário, pesquisas que visam identificar problemas como a heterogeneidade entre as empresas e analisar as diversidades entre elas ganham relevância, haja vista que as características setoriais de estrutura de capital, porte, dentre outras, variam de acordo com as empresas. A partir disso, novas abordagens aplicadas à modelagem de previsão de falência devem considerar a heterogeneidade entre as empresas, buscando aprimorar ainda mais as modelagens utilizadas. Foram utilizadas a árvore e a floresta causais com dados contábeis trimestrais e setoriais de 1.247 empresas, sendo 66 falidas, das quais 44 depois de 2008 e 22 antes. Os resultados mostraram que existe heterogeneidade não observada quando se analisam os processos de falência das empresas, colocando em cheque os modelos tradicionais como, por exemplo, análise discriminante e logit, dentre outros. Por conseguinte, com o elevado volume em dimensões, observou-se que pode haver uma forma funcional capaz de explicar a falência das empresas, porém essa não é linear. Destaca-se, ainda, que existem setores mais propensos a crises financeiras, agravando o processo de falência.

árvore causal, crise financeira, falência, floresta causal, heterogeneidade

BITTENCOURT, W. R.; ALBUQUERQUE, P. Avaliação de Falências de Empresas por meio de Florestas Causais. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, v. 31, n. 84, p. 542-559, 2020.

Bittencourt, W. R., & Albuquerque, P. (2020). Avaliação de Falências de Empresas por meio de Florestas Causais. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 31(84), 542-559.

10.1590/1808-057x202010360

https://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/59173/avaliacao-de-falencias-de-empresas-por-meio-de-florestas-causais/i/pt-br

Artigo

Português

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