42924

Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo
Maria Kelly Venezuela
Maurício Mesquita Bortoluzzo
Wilson Toshiro Nakamura

Revista Contabilidade & Finanças

This article examines three models for pricing risky assets, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) from Sharpe and Lintner, the three factor model from Fama and French, and the four factor model from Carhart, in the Brazilian market for the period from 2002 to 2013. The data is composed of shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA) on a monthly basis, excluding financial sector shares, those with negative net equity, and those without consecutive monthly quotations. The proxy for market return is the Brazil Index (IBrX) and for riskless assets savings accounts are used. The 2008 crisis, an event of immense proportions and market losses, may have caused alterations in the relationship structure of risky assets, causing changes in pricing model results. Division of the total period into pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods is the strategy used in order to achieve the main objective: to analyze the effects of the crisis on asset pricing model results and their predictive power. It is verified that the factors considered are relevant in the Brazilian market in both periods, but between the periods, changes occur in the statistical relevance of sensitivities to the market premium and to the value factor. Moreover, the predictive ability of the pricing models is greater in the post-crisis period, especially for the multifactor models, with the four factor model able to improve predictions of portfolio returns in this period by up to 80%, when compared to the CAPM.

2008 financial crisis, CAPM, market anomalies, multifactor model, prediction

BORTOLUZZO, A. B.; VENEZUELA, M. K.; BORTOLUZZO, M. M.; NAKAMURA, W. T. Influência da crise financeira de 2008 na previsibilidade dos modelos de apreçamento de ativos de risco no Brasil. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, v. 27, n. 72, p. 408-420, 2016.

Bortoluzzo, A. B., Venezuela, M. K., Bortoluzzo, M. M., & Nakamura, W. T. (2016). Influência da crise financeira de 2008 na previsibilidade dos modelos de apreçamento de ativos de risco no Brasil. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 27(72), 408-420.

10.1590/1808-057x201603220

https://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/42924/the-influence-of-the-2008-financial-crisis-on-the-predictiveness-of-risky-asset-pricing-models-in-brazil-/i/en

Artigo

Português

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