Resumo:
Este artigo investiga os efeitos das exportações de produtos primários, com foco no petróleo, sobre o desempenho do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro, conforme os argumentos da literatura denominada “Maldição dos Recursos Naturais”. Para isso, utiliza análise de cointegração via estimação de modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas (ADRL), com dados do período 2000-2017. As evidências apontam que os efeitos das exportações de petróleo são positivos para a atividade econômica no longo prazo, com robustez dos resultados quando os canais de transmissão do problema são controlados, contrariando a hipótese da maldição para o Brasil. Contudo, os efeitos são negativos no curto prazo, embora se tornem insignificantes com o controle dos canais de transmissão. Assim, verifica-se a importância da retomada dos investimentos e da melhora do quadro institucional para assegurar os benefícios do petróleo para a economia.
Resumo Inglês:
This paper investigates the primary products exports effects, especially on oil, on the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance, according to the arguments for the literature called “Natural Resources Curse”. For this, it uses cointegration analysis through estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, with data from the 2000-2017 period. The evidence indicates that the oil exports effects are positive for economic activity in the long run, with robust results by the control of the transmission channels, contrary to the Curse hypothesis for Brazil. However, the effects are negative in the short run, although they become insignificant with the control of transmission channels. Thus, this paper verifies that investments resumption and institutional framework improvement are important to ensure the oil benefits for the economy.
Citação ABNT:
VERÍSSIMO, M. P.Exportações de Petróleo e a Hipótese da Maldição dos Recursos Naturais no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Inovação, v. 18, n. 1, p. 63-88, 2019.
Citação APA:
Veríssimo, M. P.(2019). Exportações de Petróleo e a Hipótese da Maldição dos Recursos Naturais no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Inovação, 18(1), 63-88.
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