Option Pricing Using the Implied Trinomial Tree Model: An Application in Vale and Petrobrás Other Languages

ID:
38933
Abstract:
Within the theme of the use of implied volatility rather than the historical volatility, the present study sought to compare the performance of the Black-Scholes model, widely studied in Brazil and around the world, with the model of Implied Trinomial Tree relatively unexploited by national surveys. Because of the implied trinomial tree provides greater freedom of choice of the underlying prices of the nodes of the tree in the spaces of state and leaves only the transition probability be restricted by market prices, it is expected a more accurate valuation of the option price. In this vein, it sought to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the model and its application to the Brazilian stock market. Because it is a model little studied in Brazil, this empirical research was classified as exploratory and relied on a survey bibliography to situate the reader in the state of the art that is the studied subject. The results suggest that to obtain theoretical prices close to market values, an accurate calculation of the "smile" in volatility is required.
ABNT Citation:
DIAS FILHO, P. R. L.; LIMA, L. S.; PINTO, A. C. F.; KLOTZLE, M. C.; MAIA, V. M. Apreçamento de Opções Através do Modelo de Árvore Trinomial Implícita: uma Aplicação na Vale e na Petrobrás . Revista de Gestão, Finanças e Contabilidade, v. 5, n. 4, p. 64-82, 2015.
APA Citation:
Dias Filho, P. R. L., Lima, L. S., Pinto, A. C. F., Klotzle, M. C., & Maia, V. M. (2015). Apreçamento de Opções Através do Modelo de Árvore Trinomial Implícita: uma Aplicação na Vale e na Petrobrás . Revista de Gestão, Finanças e Contabilidade, 5(4), 64-82.
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.18028/2238-5320/rgfc.v5n4p64-82
Permalink:
https://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/38933/option-pricing-using-the-implied-trinomial-tree-model--an-application-in-vale--and-petrobras--/i/en
Document type:
Artigo
Language:
Português
References:
BECKERS, Stan. Standard Deviations Implied in Option Prices as Predictors of Future Stock Price Variability. Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 5, n. 3, p. 363-382, 1981.

BLACK, F.; SCHOLES, M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, v. 81, p. 637-659, 1973.

CHRISTENSEN, B. J.; PRABHALA, N. R. The relation between implied and realized volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 50, p. 125-150, 1998.

ČÍŽEK, Pavel; KAMORÁD, Karel. Implied Trinomial Trees. Departament of Econometrics and Operations Research, Universiteit van Tilburg, The Netherlands, Komerční Banka, Praha, Czech Republic, 2007.

COX, J.; ROSS, S.; RUBINSTEIN, M. Option pricing: a simplified approach. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 7, p. 229-263, 1979.

DERMAN, E.; KANI, I.; CHRISS, N. Implied trinomial trees of the volatility smile. In: SACHS, G. Quantitative Strategies Research Notes, 1996.

DERMAN, E.; KANI, I. Reading on the smile. Risk, v. 7, p. 32-39, 1994.

DUPIRE, B. Pricing with a smile. Risk, v. 7, p. 18-20, 1994.

GEMMILL, Gordon. The Forecasting Performance of Stock Options on the London Traded Options Market. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, vol. 13, n. 4, p. 535-546, 1986.

GIL, Antonio C. Como elaborar projetos de pesquisa. 5ª ed. São Paulo: Atlas, 2010.

GIL, Antonio C. Métodos e técnicas de pesquisa social. 6ª ed. São Paulo: Atlas, 2008.

HULL, John. Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. 6 ed. Prentice Hall, 2006.

HULL, J.; White, A. Valuing derivative securities using the explicit finite difference method. The Journal of Finance and Quantitative Analysis, v. 25, p. 87-100, 1990.

JORION, P. Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market. Journal of Finance, vol. 50, p. 507-528, 1995.

MÓL, A. L. R.; FELIPE, I. J. S.; GALVÃO JÚNIOR, F. M. Volatilidade dos Índices de Ações Mid-large Cap e Small Cap: uma investigação a partir de modelos ARIMA/GARCH, Revista de Gestão, Finanças e Contabilidade, v. 4, n. 1, p. 04-29, 2014.

ROUAH, F.; VAINBERG, G. Option Pricing Models & Volatility using Excel VBA, John Wiley and Sons, 2007.

RUBINSTEIN, M. Implied binomial trees. Journal of Finance, v. 49, p. 771-818, 1994.

VERGARA, Sylvia C. Projetos e Relatórios de Pesquisa em Administração. 11ª ed. São Paulo: Atlas, 2009;

YOSHINO, J. A. Uma Metodologia para a Estimação do Risco no Mercado Acionário Brasileiro: preço Arrow-Debreu, PPE - Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v. 31, n. 1, p. 125-152, 2001.