34484

Robson Braga
Gerlando Augusto Sampaio Franco de Lima
Márcia Martins Mendes De Luca

Contabilidade Vista & Revista

In this quasi-experimental study we evaluated the effect of heuristics on financial decision making in order to detect signs of non-rational behavior. At baseline, the participants (=investors) established an anchor percentage value of satisfactory gains and tolerable losses on investment in stock and defined their self-perceived investor profile, but most investors eventually manifested a more aggressive profile, exceeding their own limits considerably. By applying statistics to our findings (Studentʼs t test and chi-square), we found that, due to analytical biases, overconfidence or unrealistic optimism, investors did not respect their own limits but rather attempted to obtain gains above the initial anchor values. In addition, experiencing a situation of gain or risk did not make a significant difference in the degree of risk the investors were willing to take subsequently, making them accept losses beyond what they initially considered tolerable. Thus, our findings contradict the assumptions of the expected utility hypothesis and the principle of agent rationality.

Behavioral Accounting and Finance, Decision Making, Heuristics

BRAGA, R.; LIMA, G. A. S. F.; LUCA, M. M. M. Evaluation of Investor Behavior: do investors respect their own limits?. Contabilidade Vista & Revista, v. 25, n. 1, p. 59-73, 2014.

Braga, R., Lima, G. A. S. F., & Luca, M. M. M. (2014). Evaluation of Investor Behavior: do investors respect their own limits?. Contabilidade Vista & Revista, 25(1), 59-73.

https://www.spell.org.br/documentos/ver/34484/evaluation-of-investor-behavior--do-investors-respect-their-own-limits-/i/pt-br

Artigo

Português

ARIELY, D. Predictably irrational: the hidden forces that shape our decisions. New York: Harper Collins, 2008.

BARBERIS, N.; SHLEIFER, A.; VISHNY, R. A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, v.49, n.3, 307-343, 1998.

BARBERIS, N.; THALER, R. A survey of behavioral finance. In: Handbook of the Economics of Finance, n.1, 1053-1128, 2003.

BAZERMAN, M. H.; MOORE, D. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.New York: Wiley, 2008.

BERNOULLI, D. Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, v. 22, p. 23-36, 1954.

BLAVATSKYY P.R. Betting on own knowledge: Experimental test of overconfidence. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v.38, n.1, 2009.

BONNER, S. E. Judgment and decision making in accounting. Prentice Hall: 2008.

CVM – Comissão de Valores Mobiliários. Portal do investidor. http://www.portaldoinvestidor.gov.br/investidor/ondeinvestir/tiposdeinvestimentos/tabid/86/default.aspx?controleconteudo=viewrespconteudo&itemid=151. Recovered in: 05 oct. 2012.

DeBONDT, W.; THALER, R. Does the market overreact? Journal of Finance, v. 40, n. 3, p. 793-805, 1985.

DOROW, A.; MACEDO JÚNIOR, J.S.; NUNES, P.; REINA, D.; MAXIMINIANO, D.S. A heurística da ancoragem e a tomada de decisão sob risco em investimentos imobiliários. Contabilidade, Gestão e Governança, v. 13, n. 3, 2010.

DRUCKMAN, J.N.; KAM, C.D. Students as Experimental Participants: A Defense of the “Narrow Data Base”. Institute for Policy Research Northwestern University. In: Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science. 2009.

EINHORN, H. J.; HOGARTH, R. M. Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of Judgment and Choice. Annual Review of Psychology v. 32, p. 53-88.1981.

EPSTEIN, S. Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. American Psychologist, v. 49, p.709-724, 1994.

EREV. I.; WALLSTEN, T. S.; BUDESCU, D. V. Simultaneous Over – and underconfidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review. 101, 519-528. 1994.

EVANS, J.S.B.T. Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning. British Journal of Psychology,v.75, p.451-468, 1984.

EVANS, J.S.B.T.; OVER, D. E. Rationality and reasoning. Psychology Press, 1996.

GABAIX X.; LAIBSON, D. Bounded rationality and directed cognition. Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge: 2005.

HAIGH, M.S.; LIST, J.A. Do professional traders exhibit myopic loss aversion? An experimental analysis. The Journal of Finance, v. 59,n. 1, 2005.

HAIR JR, J.F; BLACK, W.C.; BABIN, B.J.; ANDERSON, R.E. Multivariate Data Analysis. New Jersy: Pearson Education, 2010.

HEATH C. TVERSKY. A. Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v. 4, n. 1. p. 5-28. 1991.

HSEE, C.; KUNREUTHER, H.C. The Affection Effect in Insurance Decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v. 20, n. 2, p. 141-159, 2000.

KAHNEMAN, D. TVERSKY, A. Choice, values, and frames. American Psycologist, v. 39, n.4, p. 341-350, 1984.

KAHNEMAN, D. TVERSKY, A. Prospect Theory; an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, v. 47, n.2, p. 263-291, 1979.

KIRCHLER, E.; HÖLZL, E. Economic Psychology. In: International Review of Industrial and Organizational Psychology, University of Manchester, v. 18, p. 29-81.2003.

KIRCHLER, E.; MACIEJOVSKY, B. Simultaneous overand underconfidence: evidence from experimental asset market. The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v. 25, n. 1, p. 65-85, 2002.

LIBBY, R.; BLOOMFIELD R., NELSONM. W. Experimental research in financial accounting. Accounting, Organizations and Society. v. 27, p. 775-810, 2002.

LIMA FILHO, R. N.; BRUNI, A.L.; SAMPAIO, M. S.; CORDEIRO FILHO, J. B. C.; CARVALHO JÚNIOR, C. V. D. O. Heurísticas e Práticas Orçamentárias: um estudo experimental. Sociedade, Contabilidade e Gestão, v. 5, n. 1, 2010.

LIYANARACHCHI, G. A.. Feasibility of using student subjects in accounting experiments: a review. Pacific Accounting Review. v. 19, n. 1, p. 47-67, 2007.

LIYANARACHCHI, G. A.; MILNE, M. J..Comparing the investiment decisions of accounting practioners and students: an empirical study on the adequacy of student surrogates. Accounting Forum. v. 29, p. 121-135, 2005.

MACEDO JR, J. S. Teoria do prospecto: uma investigação utilizando simulação de investimentos. Programa de Pós-Graduaçao em Engenharia de Produçao, Universidade de Santa Catarina, 2003.

MACEDO, M. A. S.; DANTAS, M. M.; OLIVEIRA, R. F. S.. Análise do Comportamento Decisório de Profissionais de Contabilidade sob a perspectiva da Racionalidade Limitada: Um Estudo sobre os Impactos da Teoria dos Prospectos e das Heurísticas de Julgamento. Revista Ambiente Contábil, v. 4, n. 1, p. 1-16, 2012.

OLIVEIRA, M. A. Heurísticas e Vieses de Decisão: Um Estudo com Participantes de uma Simulação Gerencial. Sociedade, Contabilidade e Gestão, v. 4, n. 1, 2010.

SHADISH, W.R.; COOK ,T.D.; CAMPBELL, D.T. Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs. Houghton Mifflin: 2002.

SILVA, R. F. M.; LAGIOIA, U. C. T.; MACIEL, C. V.; RODRIGUES, R. N. Finanças Comportamentais: um estudo comparativo utilizando a Teoria dos Prospectos com os alunos de graduação do curso de ciências contábeis. Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios, v. 11, n. 33, p. 383-403, 2009.

SIMON, H. A. Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 69, p. 99-118, 1955.

SIMON, H. A. Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, v. 63, n. 2, p. 129-138, 1956.

SIMON, H. A. Rationality as process and product of thought. The American Economic Review, v. 68, n. 2, p. 1-16, 1978.

SLOMAN, S. A. The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, v. 119, p. 3-22, 1996.

SLOVIC, P; FISCHHOFF, B; LICHTENSTEIN, S. Behavioral Decision Theory. Annual Review of Psychology, v. 28 p. 1 -39. 1977.

SLOVIC, P. The Construction of Preference. American Psychologist, v.50, n.5, p. 364-371, 1995.

TVERSKY, A.; KAHNEMAN, D. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, n. 185, p. 1124-1131. 1974.

WEINSTEIN, Neil D. Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. v. 39. n. 5, p. 806-820. 1980.